Week 17 brings us a full day of action as a New Year’s Eve treat!
If you’re looking to put some extra cash in your pocket, check out these early player prop values. We hit on five of our six picks last weekend, and we are looking forward to more holiday goodness on Sunday!
Colorado, Michigan and Virginia Readers: Get up to $100 from SI Sportsbook
Bet $5 on DraftKings and get $200 in Bonus Bets if not in those states
Derek Carr over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+120)
We are starting today’s prop list with a spicy plus-money payout. Why am I willing to risk it with Carr? Well, for starters, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have allowed the fifth-most passing yards to opposing QBs across the last four contests, and though they have only allowed five passing TDs in that span, the Saints will be best if they put the ball in the air. The New Orleans Saints are scoring approximately 1.5 passing touchdowns per game, as opposed to 0.7 rushing touchdowns per game. Expect Carr to target Chris Olave often. Rashid Shaheed, Taysom HIll and Juwan Johnson all have favorable matchups, too. Carr has thrown 2-plus touchdowns in each of his last three games, and I am willing to bet he does it one more time in this divisional matchup that is a must-win for the Saints to stay in the playoff picture.
Ezekiel Elliott over 28.5 receiving yards (-110)
Rhamondre Stevenson is officially done for the season and Ezekiel Elliott has stepped up admirably, eclipsing this mark in three of the last four with Bailey Zappe at quarterback for the New England Patriots. Since Week 13, Elliott has averaged 7.5 targets per game, including 11 targets last week vs. the Broncos. This matchup with the Buffalo Bills is favorable, too. They are allowing an average of 36.5 receiving yards per game to runners across the last seven contests.
Christian McCaffrey over 30.5 receiving yards (-110)
The Washington Commanders have allowed an average of 52.7 receiving yards per game to opposing running backs this season, and CMC isn’t just any running back. Not only is he averaging 35.8 receiving yards per game, he has a 17% target share for the Niners and he is in the MVP conversation.
Javonte Williams over 2.5 receptions (+120)
Here’s what I am thinking: Jarrett Stidham is going to dump off passes to his running back. Not only that, but the Los Angeles Chargers have allowed an average of 5.5 catches per game to opposing runners across the last eight games played — that’s the fourth-most in the NFL. Oh, and Williams has three or more catches in seven of his last nine games played, so yeah, I’ll take the plus-money odds for this one.
Chris Olave over 66.5 receiving yards (-110)
If we are backing Carr, we have to back Olave, too. Olave will be facing a Bucs defense that has allowed an average of 203 receiving yards per game to wideouts across the last eight games played — the most in the NFL. Olave owns a 25% target share for the Saints and he’s responsible for 29.4% of the team’s receiving yards. He’s averaging 74.4 receiving yards per game this season, and he’s exceeded this prop in four of the last five games played. Olave has been bothered by an ankle injury, but he played with it last week and nearly doubled this prop. Take advantage of the injury discount and smash this over.
Nico Collins over 57.5 receiving yards (-110)
C.J. Stroud has cleared concussion protocol and he’s on track to play Sunday at home vs. the Tennessee Titans. The Titans have allowed the fifth-most receiving yards to opposing wideouts across the last eight contests, and Nico Collins should be in line for a big day. Tank Dell is out for the season, and he’ll be sharing targets with Dalton Schultz, Noah Brown and Robert Woods — all of whom have been recently banged up. Collins is averaging 78.6 receiving yards per game this season and he’s responsible for 29% of the teams receiving yards for the season, despite playing in only 13 games. Collins will easily exceed this prop.
Gerald Everett anytime TD (+250)
I like the payout for Everett to find the end zone vs. the Denver Broncos. The Broncos have allowed a league-worst seven touchdowns to tight ends across the last seven games — for an average of one per game. Donald Parham was a healthy scratch last week, and Everett has been targeted eight times in each of the last three contests. He’s caught at least four passes for five consecutive games, and we’ll bet one of them this week is for paydirt.
Colorado, Michigan and Virginia Readers: Get up to $100 from SI Sportsbook
Bet $5 on FanDuel and get $200 in Bonus Bets if not in those states
